Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.
For the first two years of his presidency, it seemed like Donald Trump could, as he famously put it during his campaign, shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose his voters.
Republican majorities in the House and the Senate negotiated his agenda on Capitol Hill. The majority leader, Mitch McConnell, and House Speaker Paul Ryan protected him from serious Congressional investigations, and passed a sweeping tax bill, the president’s major legislative accomplishment. G.O.P. lawmakers largely lived in fear of angering the president’s still-loyal base if they challenged him.
Times have certainly changed. Mr. Trump spent the Christmas holidays complaining that he was all alone in the White House. Now, with the government in the middle of its longest-ever shutdown, his State of the Union address has been delayed indefinitely. Even his G.O.P. armor shows some tiny cracks, with a half dozen Republican senators voting on Thursday afternoon in favor of a Democratic proposal to reopen the government.
So far, divided government hasn’t been a good look for Mr. Trump. And a batch of new polls released over the past few days tells a pretty unflattering story for him.
• His approval rating is at an all-time low: 36 percent in a CBS News poll, 40 percent in a Politico/Morning Consult poll and 34 percent in an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll.
• Perhaps, most importantly, his sales pitch on the border wall hasn’t succeeded. Only 22 percent of American voters, including 40 percent of Republicans and 15 percent of independents, consider the situation along the southern border an “emergency,” according to a Fox News poll.
• Only about a third agreed that the wall would make the country safer, according to the A.P. poll. Not even a majority of Republicans supported Mr. Trump’s argument that a wall would reduce the availability of illegal drugs in the United States, the poll showed.
• The CBS News poll showed that seventy-one percent of Americans, including 43 percent of Republicans, do not believe the wall is worth the federal shutdown. Two-thirds of respondents want him to agree to a budget without wall funding and 60 percent see the shutdown as causing “serious problems” for the country, according to the poll.
It’s unclear whether these numbers will sway the president, who spent the morning tweeting out his case for the wall. He has a history of focusing on the polling numbers that reinforce what he wants to see and discrediting the rest as “fake news.” And while proposals float around the White House for a big deal on immigration, there are certainly some in his administration who still believe Democrats will cave on the wall.
But the economic pain of the shutdown is real — and spreading. There’s a little bit of noise about a primary challenge to Mr. Trump, a rumbling that grew slightly louder last week after Gov. Larry Hogan, a Maryland Republican, used his inaugural address to raise the specter of impeachment. And while shutdowns don’t generally decide elections, Democrats see an opportunity to undermine the president’s image as a master deal maker, a key piece of his political identity, ahead of 2020.
Here at On Politics we spend a lot of time writing about the Betos, Bidens, Warrens and Sanders of the political world — the early possible stars of the 2020 Democratic primary cycle. But it takes a crowd to create a crowded field. Below those boldfaced names lurks a whole other world of presidential politics.
We spoke to two men yesterday — Pete Buttigieg and former Representative John Delaney — who are definitely long shots but are hoping to have their moment on the national stage.
They are probably little known beyond the world of political junkies; neither man is listed in early voting polls or has expansive lists of supporters. But both see little downside in taking their shot to become the leader of the free world.
“A broad field, a wide-open field that’s a good thing for newcomers,” said Mr. Buttigieg.
Wednesday was a big day for Mr. Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., who announced his presidential exploratory committee at a Hyatt hotel in Washington, D.C. The location was telling: It was chosen because it would be close to the offices of political reporters and on the sidelines of a conference for American mayors.
The youngest and only gay candidate in the race, Mr. Buttigieg, 37, believes his economic record in South Bend, his youth and his military service give him an edge in a crowded field.
“I’m the only one who is living a middle class lifestyle in Middle America,” he told reporters. “I get the odds but I also believe we can do something that no one else can do.”
Mr. Buttigieg cast his underdog status as an advantage, saying it would allow him to be bold, though he didn’t introduce any new plans during his announcement. His last moment on the national stage? A bid for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee in 2017 that ended with Mr. Buttigieg dropping out of the race shortly before voting.
Some of the questions he fielded this time around: What makes him unique? How does he stand out in a packed race? And how do you pronounce his name?
Mr. Buttigieg’s official Twitter feed offered this pronunciation: BOOT-edge-edge. His husband, Chasten Buttigieg, offered some other options.
Mr. Delaney, meanwhile, has been running for president for more than 18 months, after announcing his bid in an op-ed in the summer of 2017 — almost three and half years before the election. The former Maryland congressman told On Politics that he thinks he’s gaining traction in the race, citing his 20 visits to Iowa and his six campaign offices in the state.
His pitch: He can bring Americans together because he’s “someone who’s not ashamed to say I’m more moderate.” That might be a tough sell in a party that’s tilted left, both on policy and tactics, during the Trump era.
Still, Mr. Delaney sees a way to win. The fact that he’s able to self-fund some of his campaign makes it easier, too.
“I think I break out on the ground in Iowa,” he said. “As people start figuring out the progress we’re making in Iowa I think it becomes very clear what our path is.”
• The shutdown could prompt government service to lose its allure, causing some civil servants to worry about a brain drain of scientists, researchers and other specialists.
• No one likes traffic. But could it be a public health issue?
• Vanity Fair scores the juiciest excerpt from a tell-all by a former White House aide, Cliff Sims, about his time in the Trump administration.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says he doesn’t understand why furloughed federal workers don’t just take out loans against their future paychecks.
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【都】【需】【得】【我】【跑】【这】【一】【趟】。 【身】【边】【有】【枫】【叶】【保】【护】【我】【的】【安】【全】。 【还】【有】【一】【个】【丫】【鬟】【跟】【着】。 【这】【些】【年】，【我】【享】【受】【了】【孤】【独】，【孤】【独】【如】【影】【随】【形】。 【没】【有】【左】【湛】【在】【身】【边】，【我】【总】【是】【孤】【独】。 【我】【很】【少】【再】【显】【露】【于】【人】【前】，【这】【次】【也】【拒】【绝】【韩】【砾】【提】【供】【的】【护】【卫】【保】【护】。 【我】【很】【少】【出】【过】【这】【般】【远】【门】，【远】【也】【是】【其】【次】，【是】【个】【贫】【瘠】【的】，【陌】【生】【的】【地】【方】。 【又】【靠】【着】【边】【境】。
【又】【是】【接】【连】【两】【尾】【断】【去】，【化】【为】【两】【具】【狐】【身】。 【如】【此】【一】【来】，【那】【具】【真】【身】【上】【的】【尾】【巴】【就】【仅】【仅】【剩】【下】【六】【条】。【点】【点】【殷】【红】【渗】【出】，【最】【后】【被】【浑】【厚】【妖】【气】【撑】【为】【一】【抹】【浅】【浅】【红】【色】，【在】【一】【身】【金】【色】【毛】【皮】【上】【灵】【动】【游】【走】，【而】【一】【身】【气】【机】【却】【是】【直】【接】【越】【过】【脱】【劫】，【攀】【升】【到】【了】【元】【神】【之】【下】【所】【能】【容】【纳】【的】【极】【限】，【虽】【然】【注】【定】【大】【战】【过】【后】【会】【跌】【落】【下】【去】，【但】【此】【时】【气】【势】【之】【强】【却】【是】【仅】【在】【道】【明】【老】【僧】【之】【下】，考高中特长有什么好处【林】【晓】【晓】【走】【进】【果】【园】，【唤】【出】【系】【统】【商】【店】【菜】【单】，【商】【店】【的】【首】【页】【上】【弹】【出】【了】【一】【个】【微】【型】【无】【人】【机】【的】【介】【绍】【页】【面】。 【这】【个】【无】【人】【机】【颜】【色】【是】【可】【以】【随】【着】【背】【景】【色】【的】【改】【变】【而】【自】【动】【变】【化】【的】，【这】【样】【便】【于】【它】【隐】【形】。 【无】【人】【机】【长】【为】【两】【厘】【米】，【最】【宽】【的】【地】【方】【是】【一】【点】【二】【厘】【米】。【它】【内】【置】【了】【一】【台】【涡】【轮】【发】【动】【机】，【使】【用】【的】【燃】【料】【为】【固】【态】【汽】【油】。【固】【然】【汽】【油】【又】【通】【过】【一】【个】【名】【叫】“【解】【压】【机】”【的】
【百】【水】【水】【立】【刻】【伸】【出】【手】，“【阵】【法】—【格】【挡】。” 【格】【挡】【住】【了】【那】【个】【妖】【怪】【之】【后】，【百】【水】【水】【看】【到】【那】【个】【妖】【怪】【处】【于】【邪】【化】【的】【状】【态】，【它】【的】【身】【上】【散】【发】【着】【阴】【暗】【的】【气】【息】，【双】【眼】【通】【红】。 【这】【是】【一】【邪】【化】【后】【的】【狼】【妖】。 【青】【阑】【看】【到】【这】【个】【妖】【怪】【的】【时】【候】【不】【禁】【感】【慨】，“【它】【倒】【是】【挺】【帅】【气】。” 【百】【水】【水】【听】【到】【青】【阑】【的】【话】【后】【有】【些】【无】【语】，“【谁】【让】【你】【夸】【赞】【他】【了】？” “【阵】【法】—
【双】【方】【球】【员】【各】【自】【走】【到】【场】【边】【的】【替】【补】【席】。 【安】【珀】【与】【朱】【峰】【二】【人】【相】【视】【了】【一】【下】，【只】【是】【一】【下】，【安】【珀】【足】【以】【感】【受】【到】【了】【朱】【峰】【的】“【挑】【衅】”！ 【原】【来】，【朱】【峰】【这】【名】【球】【员】【内】【心】【十】【分】【要】【强】，【在】【双】【方】【第】【一】【回】【合】【较】【量】【时】，【朱】【峰】【目】【睹】【安】【珀】【反】【击】【时】【长】【途】【奔】【袭】【打】【入】【本】【方】【一】【球】，【从】【那】【时】【起】，【朱】【峰】【便】【将】【安】【珀】【视】【为】【同】【位】【置】【上】【的】【最】【大】【敌】【人】！ 【而】【本】【场】【比】【赛】【中】，【二】【人】【各】【为】【本】
“hi，【林】【诱】【缠】，【很】【高】【兴】【认】【识】【你】。”【林】【诱】【缠】【穿】【着】【一】【身】【米】【白】【色】【的】【连】【衣】【裙】【手】【提】【小】【香】【包】【来】【到】【餐】【厅】【里】，【她】【跟】【对】【面】【坐】【着】【的】【人】【打】【了】【个】【招】【呼】。【她】【笑】【容】【满】【面】【温】【和】【有】【礼】，【一】【下】【子】【就】【把】【两】【个】【人】【之】【间】【的】【生】【疏】【感】【打】【散】【了】【不】【少】。 【君】【墨】【礼】【貌】【的】【点】【头】：“【你】【好】【林】【小】【姐】，【我】【是】【君】【墨】。” 【君】【墨】【在】【见】【到】【林】【诱】【缠】【之】【前】，【对】【这】【次】【的】【见】【面】【没】【有】【抱】【着】【任】【何】【期】【待】。【虽】